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Sunday, 19 January 2025

Pouring Troubled Waters On Oil

NO! I Have Not Mangled An Aphorism

Your Humble Scribe does not make mistakes like that.  If that's how it's written then I made a deliberate choice.  Of course - obviously! - you are thinking of the saying "To pour oil on troubled waters', which implies one is resolving a difficult situation by using intellect and negotiating skills, rather than brute force.  Conrad has never seen an example of a stormy sea being calmed via the use of oils or other unguents, but will take it as read that such resorts do work.  Art!


     Why do I put up a picture of my favourite anti-space opera sci-fi novel?  Because I recall that MJH mentions in the text about armed hovercraft patrols cruising the briny deeps, and spraying polymers ahead of them to vanquish high wavefronts.  Go read it yourself if you don't believe Honest Conrad.

     So, what this Intro is about concerns Joe "Catatonic" Biden, the Ruffian oil export sector and recent administrative restraints.  Which latter phrase is akin to euphemising 'Armageddon-level sanctions".

     Thanks to both "Joe Blogs" and "Jake Broe" for the background on this story.  Let us crack on.

     The Global West has long realised that The Kremlin Gremlin uses his country's oil and gas exports to pay for his Special Idiotic Operation, thanks to the revenue these sources raise.  Rather than an outright ban on Ruffian oil exports, which might tank the market, the chosen tactic was to impose an 'oil cap' on Ruffian petroleum exports.  This has been tricky to maintain, as the orcs seek out every loophole imaginable to keep selling their oil, whilst the Global West plays catch-up in closing said loopholes.  Until now.  Art!


With only 10 days of his Prez status left, Ol' Joe has unleashed an absolutely swingeing set of sanctions upon Modern-day Mordor.  One might well ask why these weren't imposed a year ago, or two years ago, or three years ago, and one can only suppose that Jake "The Brake" Sullivan was responsible for advising not to escalate because otherwise Ruffia might do something drastic, like invade Ukraine.  Art!


     Two primary Ruffian companies have now been directly targeted: Gaspromneft and Surgutneftgas.  These two companies between them export 970,000 barrels of oil per day, for an annual total of $70 billion dollars.  Hitting them with sanctions is going to play absolute Hob with Ruffian revenues.

     Ooops.

     It gets worse.  You ought to have heard of the Ruffian 'Shadow fleet' of tankers that don't have insurance, which are used to shift oil around in order to avoid conforming to the price cap.  Three of these recently poisoned the Ruffian shores of the Black Sea, which the Ruffians will just have to suck up and endure: no insurance, remember?  No tourist income from the shores of the Black Sea for the next decade, either.

     Well, under Ol' Joe's latest administrative orders, another 183 of these Ruffian tankers are now sanctioned.  Art!

The poster child for 'Asymptotic Progression'

     If Conrad remembers correctly, this is the whole of the Ruffian Shadow Fleet. It has had an immediate impact, since China has now turned back three Ruffian tankers that were outbound from Vladivostok for ports in China.  If they had docked and off-loaded their cargo, then China would be the focus of secondary sanctions, which means risking 98% of their global trade for the 2% that they do with Ruffia.  No contest.  Art!

A clutch of 'Nodding donkeys'

     Here's another worry for Ruffia and the Fun-Sized Foot Fiddler: South Canada is now producing more oil than ever before, and when the Orange Land Whale takes control of the reins, this total is likely to increase, in order to drive down gasoline prices, which the rest of us call 'petrol prices'.  If the Ruffian oil industry and it's exports collapses, then South Canada is perfectly placed to take over the burden of supply.

     Ooops again.

     Conrad also thinks that outside the box, the Ukrainians may well start using naval drones to hit Ruffian oil tankers sortieing from their Ust-Luga terminal near Saint Petersburg.  Even if it only happened once, it would still be a massive problem for the Shady Fleet.

     This is another reasons why Dimya's assertions about time being on his side are a big load of honk.  Welcome to Modern-day Mordor, where the potato is now a luxury food item, eggs can only be dreamed about and they need to buy gas from Uzbekistan.  And where people carry out armed robberies to steal butter.


     This is all according to plan?  One shudders to think what things might look like if the plan wasn't being followed.


The Curse Of No Camera

It ain't exactly a blessing.  Your Humble Scribe needs to keep the enveloping dressing on his right big toe completely dry or else IT BEHAVES LIKE HYDRAZINE.   Or so implicated Adnan, the podiatrist of record.  Perhaps only slightly less dangerous than hydrazine.  Art!

     
     Believe me, you do NOT want to see any of the pictures generated by 'diabetic foot ulcer', as Conrad's is a minor inconvenience compared to some.

     Why do I mention all this?  Well, because I needed a shower this morning, thanks to the matted greasy locks that sat upon my head.  Thus it was that I taped up my right foot in a plastic bag, and then taped that plastic bag within another plastic bag, and then taped them both closed against my hairy lower shin with more packing tape.

     It worked.  Dressing remained dry.  Any outside observer would have found it hilarious as I squelched into and from the shower.  WITH NO PHOTOGRAPHIC EVIDENCE.  

     Sheesh.


The Windy City Is Mighty Gritty

Yes! more factual information from Sal Mercogliano, whom normally deals with international maritime traffic and who has branched out into firefighting, as this is something he's been doing for the past 25 years.  Once again we address the issues that various conspiracy weebles have brought up about why the Californian wildfires cannot be extinguished with seawater.  Art!


     This is one of the Port Of Los Angeles fireboats, which throws an awful lot of seawater at fires.  43 thousand gallons per minute, according to Sal.  Thing is, they cannot always get close to shore thanks to this Californian thing called 'A Beach', and the fires being more than a few hundred yards inland.

      What they can do, mind, via Large Diameter Hose, is pump out water offshore to fire engines inland, who can then use that water to extinguish fires.  This is 'Relay Pumping' and is used by fire brigades to forward water overland to units that are able to directly use it when out of local water supplies.

     Gosh.  It's almost as if clever people worked out solutions to problems before they arose.  Who knew!


     Another factor making fire extinguishing almost impossible are the Santa Ana winds.  These are powerful weather phenomena that blow from inland for weeks at a time, and which spread sparks, embers and outright flames ahead of them.  Art!


     Any of those embers may become another fire.  No conspiranoid loonwaffle required.


The Bootiful Game

Conrad does not operate in a media vacuum, and has noted that there have been news items about that chap who runs the ballfoot club Manchester In The City, whatever his name is.  

     Then, too, there have been other rumblings about Manchester Is United, the other ballfoot team that graces our fair city.  Well, city.  You can't call Weaste fair.

     ANYWAY there were Comments on a recent BBC 'Have Your Say' about the new chap running Manchester Is United.  O they were not complimentary.  Not at all.

Comment by mha71 at 18:46
It’s a good strategy.
Sign a big contract, no doubt with a huge payoff if sacked, realise the enormity of the task, say increasingly defeatist and hostile things until the board either gives you 1 billion pounds to buy success with, or sacks you so you can return home with 20 million pounds in your suitcase.

     How very cynical! and not necessarily untrue.  Art!


     Ooops.  There are only 20 teams in the Premium Laager, for your information.


Finally -

Just to let you know that I'm enjoying "Wild Swans" at present, the autobiography of Jung Chang, which also details the life of her mother and grandmother.  Back in grandmother's day, women were merely obedient chattels who subsumed their entire life and persona into their marriage and husband.  

     No!  That was a bad thing!  Western civilisation has not declined since women got the vote!

     Time to pull the ripcord and launch this blog before things escalate.






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