Economics
CAUTION! SINGLE ITEM BLOG! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!
SIT BACK DOWN! This is interesting, I tell you - pay close attention or it's the Remote Nuclear Tormentor for you all - Art!
Earlier we dealt with South Canadian tariffs; this time we're going to look at the Ruffian economy, which - you may be ahead of me here - is not doing very well. For one thing, their budget deficit now stands at ₽5.4 trillion rubles, or $65 billion dollars in proper money, with another two months of 2026 still to go, so it will probably end up nearer ₽70 trillion or $78 billion. Even the lower figure is twice what they had projected. Art!
This is Professor Derin Gerdes, whose vlog on economic matters "Professor Gerdes Explains" from 7/11/2026 I have annotated, with more additions from myself and 'Jake Broe'.
Let's get cracking. The Prof asserted that the Ruffian economy hasn't collapsed yet but, as he put it, is 'cannibalising' itself to keep going, much as their air force and passenger airliners are doing. This is essential to pay for the war and debt obligations. 'Debt obligations' are the payments that the government must make to pay off the principal and interest on state debt, which amount to 10% of the national debt, and to that you can add 40% for 'defence' spending. Art!

Ukrainians flipping the bird at Pig Daddy
As of the First of November, the Kozaky hit 3 Ruffian oil refineries in three days: Kstovo (which supplies petrol and diesel to Barad Duh), Ufa and Novokuibyshevsk (which is hard for most people to pronounce). These aren't just single strikes going for a CDU; they are hitting anything that will explode, further hampering repair operations. For any single day these refineries are offline, 90,000 tons of crude cannot be refined, meaning a loss of revenue totalling $90 million dollars per day.
These strikes have had an immediate effect, causing fuel shortages and loooooong queues at petrol stations in Moscow, which Putinpot hates as it brings the war home to capital orcses. Art!
People are being rationed to 13 gallons each, or even 10 in some of the provinces, and spending all night in a Ruffian winter to get fuel is hazardous to one's health.
The Prof cites Super Steve Rosenberg, Our Man In Mordorvia, who analysed Ruffian print media (which is slightly less censored and directed than broadcast media). He quoted 'Nevashevistnya' which provided a bit of detail about how the budget is going to fund the war and debt servicing; naturally, social spending is being cut, and by 15%. Art!

Super Steve!
15% is a whopping big reduction, almost a sixth of the total. Nor is that all. Now the State Duma elections are over, domestic retail prices have soared, meaning that the orcs cannot now afford beef or chicken - which has increased in price by 40%. Helpful government experts have encouraged orcs to switch to pulses or lentils instead. Conrad encourages them to take up the art of 'bin-dipping'. Art!
I'm cheating here, this article is from 2025. Mind you, it gives an idea how bad things are in the Ruffian agricultural sector, especially as during September 2026 they only sold 41 domestically produced harvesters. October's numbers are said to be even worse but haven't been officially released yet and if they're this bad, they may never be released. Dealers selling harvesters and other farm equipment have until 01/01/2027 to repay any loans they took out or risk bankruptcy, or, as is more likely, the state seizing their business.
Let The Grain Take The Train: quoting 'Stanimir Dobrev' from Twitter, The Prof stated that the 'Ruffian Grain Union' says Ruffian grain exports from all Mordorvia's ports have dropped as of October by 67%, from 7 million tons to 2.4 million tons. One-quarter of that 7 million tons would have gone from the Black Sea ports and the ports on the Sea Of Azov, totalling 1.75 million tons. However - O that word again! - all three ports on the SOA, Rostov, Taganrog and Azov are all closed, with their port infrastructure badly damaged and 7,000 jobs at risk. Art!
Wheat exports are also down by 68%, from 6 million tons to 2 million tons. This means - you may be ahead of me here - that the state revenue for grain exports also falls dramatically.
I shall now go off at a tangent to cover what Jake had on his vlog, which sounds deadly dull yet which is exceedingly insightful: insurance rates.
SIT BACK DOWN!
Pre-2022, insurance rates for Ruffian marine freight ran at between 0.25% and 0.35% of the vessel being insured's overall value. Then came the war, and Lloyds and other insurance entities declared the Black Sea to be 'Hazardous' and refused to insure any shipping transiting it into Ruffian waters. To give their reasons:
"The Joint War Committee (JWC)—which includes the Lloyd's Market Association and London insurance market representatives—classified the Black Sea as a high-risk and hazardous commercial shipping environment due to the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine"
Art!

orcs at sea
Enter the Ruffian National Compensation Pool, which provides marine and cargo insurance for ships calling at Mordorvia's ports, especially those on the Black Sea, since nobody else is willing to risk it. Thing is, it only amounts to $360 million, and can thus only cover 50 to 70 ships at any one time, which is waaaaaay below the number of ships needing to use the BS ports.
Net result? Insurance costs have spiked, which is to say gone through the roof. From 0.25% of a ship's value, they are now at 10%, a forty-fold increase, "heavily depressing the global competitiveness of Ruffian commodities like grain."
O dearie me.
The example given in the screenshot Jake showed used a ship valued at $40 million. Art!

E.g. this
Having to pay 10% of that added $67 to every ton of grain. A ton of wheat shipped from the Black Sea ports comes in at around $220 per ton, thus the grain cost increases by 33%. Unless insurance rates drop to no higher than 2%, Ruffian shipping, especially grain, will not recover.
We can only hope.
The Prof also looked at the death benefits being paid to the families of orcs who signed a contract and went off to become sunflower-fodder in Ukraine. Provincial governments are finding it from difficult to impossible to pay what they used to, and have petitioned Barad Duh to provide financial relief. Well, with a budget deficit of $65, the Kremlin cannot afford to subsidise the provinces. Art!
One million rubles is about $12,200 in proper money. These figures are one reason why orc recruitment has fallen way below their losses ever since December 2025, I think by 5,000 per month in the summer and autumn of 2026; possibly by as many as 30,000 for October as their casualties skyrocket. At the other end of the recruitment spectrum, sign-on bonuses have also dwindled to a fraction of what they used to be. In September a contractniki got $55,200; in November they are only getting $9,814, or less than a fifth.
Ooo-err Matron!
I shall leave you with the clever and waspish wit of Sarah Paine. Art!
Wah wah wah.

























































