By Kriminy!

NO! That Is Not A Typo

You ought to know by now that Conrad is a master of the English language and how it is wroten.  If it says 'Kriminy' that's how it is.  Yes, I am spoofing the exclamation 'By Criminy!' which I had to look up on teh Interwebz, as it's not in my 'Brewer's' - which, by the way, is now held together with packing tape and a new edition is definitely needed - and it turns out to be one of those faux exclamations that avoid actually swearing or taking the name of the Lord in vain.  Like 'Dog Buns!'.

     ANYWAY be warned that the Remote Nuclear Tormentor is simply itching for a workout.  Art!

     This is another Intro that might turn out to be the whole blog as I have no editing skills or ability to predict how prolix I shall be.

     <EDITED TO ADD> yes, this whole blog is a single Intro post, take that as you will.

     So! the core of this particular BOOJUM! will be a vlog from 'Paul Warburg' with additional input from various Tweets, Georgijs from 'Ukraine Matters' and my own musings.  I shall post links at the end.

     Okay, Warby's title for his vlog was 'Crimea Could Fall Quickly' and he established that he began to cover the Ukrainian attacks on 'Krim', as it is know to both Kozaky and Mordorvia, a year ago.  Hence today's title.  His predictions, ridiculed by vatniks and orcs, are now beginning to come true.  Art!

He's taken to recording vlogs indoors

     Three things are contributing to this: The SAM systems located in Krim; Logistics into Krim; On-site storage in Krim.  All of these are being taken off-line and are seriously weakening the orc position in Krim.

     First, a lesson in Krim geography.  Art!

     There are road and rail links into the peninsula in it's north and east, the ones in the north having a very narrow 'neck' across which they run.  If Ukraine mounted a direct attack on Krim, this choke point would be very easy for the orcs to defend and likely be extremely costly for the attackers.  The other option would be an amphibious assault on a defended shoreline - one of the most difficult, complex and dangerous types of military operations.

     HOWEVER - a word you surely knew was coming - these choke points also affect the Ruffian garrison in Krim, because geography is a double-edged sword.  The long M-14 highway from Ruffia that crosses occupied Ukraine north of the Black Sea coastline has now been effectively cut.  Art!

Courtesy Jay In Kyiv

  

     A montage I put together.  The first picture is an Ukrainian 'Hornet' drone crossing the M-14; the second is of a destroyed Ruffian military truck hit by a Hornet; the third is a Ruffian driver saying that there was nothing like this only two weeks prior.  There are clips of Hornet drones loitering around Mariupol, the orc-occupied city that is 150 kilometres from the front line and on the shore of the Black Sea.

     Cutting the M-14 was the goal of the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive in 2023.  They have now managed to achieve this by using Starlink-equipped drones that have been mass-produced and can penetrate the Ruffian Electronic Warfare defences south of the Dnipro.  Art!

Hornet pre-sting

     These are only supposed to have a 50 kilometre range, so they've been upgraded.  They pack up to 10 kilos of explosive and will turn anything not a tank into dogfood.

     On the subject of Krim's SAM defences, the Kozaky have been implacably destroying them across the past year.  In 2026 so far they have destroyed over 100 systems, meaning the orcs either have to replace them, in which case they get destroyed in short order, or suffer gaps in air defence, which is already happening.  The Ukrainian tactic is to hit a static SAM system defending something of worth, destroy it and then send in a flock of drones to finish off whatever was being defended.  

     On the subject of storage in Krim, the Kozaky targeted the Feodosia oil storage depot, destroying 23 out of 29 tanks there, and if 6 have been left alone, it's because they're empty.  Art!

     The place has been flaming well malleted, to use my quaint turn of phrase.  I used to store all the fuel needed across Krim, and now it's gone.  Art!

Courtesy ITDUDE Fella

     I know what you're thinking.  "What about the Kerch Straits Bridge?"  O I thought you'd never ask!  You could write an Intro on this subject alone.  Well, the bridge has seen better days.  Art!

     The incredibly ingenious or horribly treacherous, depending on your viewpoint, truck-bomb attack that Ukraine carried out in 2022 crippled the bridge for 6 months.  The Dutch firm that originally built it wouldn't go near it with a fifteen-foot perch pole, so the orcs had to bodge up repairs themselves.  Consequently, the rail bridge has never resumed full service and the tonnage and frequency of rail transport across it has been severely reduced.  To add insult and invective to injury, the Kozaky further damaged a support pier with an underwater drone, meaning that the orcs avoid sending heavy equipment across it, unless desperate.  Of late, they have been hitting the FSB patrol boats that guard it.  Art!

     Poor chaps.  It used to be that being in the FSB was a cushy rear-echelon job where you could torture, rob and murder with impunity.  Not any longer.

     So, you must be asking, how do the orcs get things like replacement SAM systems into Krim if they avoid the bridge?  O I thought you'd never ask!  Art!

     By using rail and roll-on roll-off ferries such as these three.  From port to starboard they are the: Conro Trader; Avangard; Slavyanin.  They were the logistical support for Krim, transporting supplies from the Ruffian shore to the peninsula, meaning that Ukraine took a keen interest in them.  In 2024 they sunk the Conro Trader and badly damaged the other two ships, which were out of commission for two years.  Both came back into service in early 2026 and Hay Pesto! Ukraine hit and badly damaged them again, so they can expect to be out of service for another two years.

     Are the Ukrainians 'shaping the battlespace' to borrow a hideous buzzphrase, in order to attack the Kerch Bridge?  Only a handful of people know for certain whether the answer is yes or no.  Art!

Prez Zed is one

     Leaving it intact means the orcs have to expend a lot of resources to defend it, as Putinpot's vanity project cannot be allowed to fall victim to naval drones or a swarm of Flamingo cruise missiles.  By sinking or damaging ships that patrol or service the bridge, they maintain the pressure.  Intact, it also functions as an escape route for the orcs in Krim, whom will bolt if Ukraine does gain the upper hand.  It was hilarious to see the orc tourists bolting over the bridge by road and rail after Ukraine hit the nearby Saki airbase.

     Paul also added in a very interesting coda: previous plans for re-taking Krim from the orcs presupposed that the Ukrainians would be carrying out assaults using squishy Hom. Sap. and suffering heavy losses.  That was before they began to mass-produce their Unmanned Ground Vehicles, which have been recently used to great effect, negating the use of human soldiers.  Art!

    Meet Huey, Dewey and Louie, the wave of the future.  Given the pace of drone development, it's possible that these will be used in AI-directed swarms before long.  We are living in the future.  Here's the link to Warby's vlog.

The Situation in Crimea is INSANE Right Now - YouTube

     Georgij pointed out another consequence of Ukraine's mid-range drone capability.  Art!

     In 2024 Putinpot was blathering and boasting about creating a 'sanitary zone' inside the Ukrainian border in order to keep the Kozaky away from Ruffia proper, establishing a buffer zone to a depth of 5 - 10 kilometres.  It was supposed to be along that red line Georgij has helpfully sketched.

     Predictably, the whole thing was a miserable failure.  Art!

     This is as far as they got before hitting Ukrainian defences, perhaps 5 kilometres at the deepest penetration.  Against Kozaky mid-range drones that, as above, can easily travel 150 kilometres.  Death of a grate idea.  The link for 'Ukraine Matters'.

Russia's Offensive Has Already Failed

     That's all, folks!