Greetings, Gentle Readers!
To both of you. First of all, allow me to warn you that there are going to be mathematics and statistics in this Intro, for Lo! we are focussing on the petroleum industry of Mordorvia, which is a story in itself. In case you were unaware, the Ruffians don't make very much for themselves, they import their needs and their economy is based on the sale of oil and gas, plus coal to a lesser extent. Anything that affects their petroleum industry directly affects their revenue and budgets. Art!
Ukrainian 'kinetic sanctions' at work
Most of this Intro comes from a vlog by 'Joe Blogs', which I annotated, with additional sums and input from Conrad. What Joe didn't mention was the Ukrainian drone campaign against Ruffian refineries, pumping stations, pipelines and export pier terminals. The consensus is that 40% of Mordorvia's refining capacity is offline because of these attacks, meaning they are now trying to sell even more crude oil, rather than the much more lucrative refined products.
Joe himself got his data from a 'Bloomberg' report, so I'm paraphrasing a paraphrase, if you will. No link to the article I'm afraid. Art!
For the week ending 04/01/2026, Ruffian Urals crude is selling at $35 per barrel, the lowest level it has been at since the Special Idiotic Operation began, as a result of sanctions realllllly beginning to bite, and bite hard. It costs the orcs an average of $42 dollars per barrel to extract it - at present. Art!
This shows the fall from $58 dollars PB in October to $35 PB now, caused by the sanctions placed on Rosneft and Lukoil, Ruffia's two biggest oil exporters. Unlike previous sanction measures, these were instantly and devastatingly effective, causing China, India and Turkey to abruptly back off from oil purchasing. Originally the Ruffian federal budget for 2025 was calculated with oil sales based on an estimate of $70 PB, which budget had to be re-jigged in the summer, now assuming an estimate of $58 PB, and now the $35 PB is creating an enormous deficit. Art!
The bad news for Barad-Duh is that oil prices are falling globally so there is no opportunity for prices to suddenly increase. At peak in 2023 Ruffian crude sales were at $2 billion per week, or $104 billion annually. They are now as of 2026 at $835 million per week, or an annual total of $43 billion. That's a deficit of over $60 billion. Art!
This phenomenon is because, again, China, India and Turkey aren't purchasing Ruffian crude in anything like the quantity they used to. Mordorvia doesn't have anywhere to store the crude they produce, so they are using the shadow fleet tankers as floating storage. There are two problems that go with this; one is that all the tankers will eventually be full up, and the second is that crude oil in storage degrades over time. Oxidation, evapouration and contamination all affect crude in storage, meaning their cargoes may be date-expired by the time they get to market. Art!
You doubtless recognise the Senile Sepia Sackbut. The chap to port is Senator Lindsey Graham, who is well-meaning but a bit spineless when it comes to BOOH. He has finally got DJ Tango to approve a sanctions bill that will impose 500% tariffs on anyone buying Ruffian oil, due to be implemented shortly. Instead of greatly reduced purchases from China, India and Turkey, this bill will completely end them. Tee hee! The Ruffian federal budget used to be funded to the tune of 40% from oil and gas sales, which has now declined to 24% and 2026 will see it fall even further, the only question being how low can it go? Art!
That's one of about 1,000 Ruffian shadow fleet tankers. They aren't cheap to operate, as a commodity broker in the Comments explained. A normal 'Aframax' tanker would run to between $30 - $40,000 per day to operate, made up of crew salaries, insurance, maintenance, port fees and so on. A shadow fleet tanker costs between $80 - $90,000 per day. If we guesstimate only half of these tankers are sailing at any one time, that's $15 billion in expenses per year.
Way back above I mentioned the cost of extraction being $42 dollars per barrel, which means Mordorvia is selling it's crude at a loss. It gets worse, because one Ruffian oil industry pundit said the 'easy extraction' oilfields are now drying up and new wells need to be dug in even more extreme geographical locations. Whether Mordorvia can manage this without sanctioned Western technology and expertise is one question, as is how they could fund it. Art!
The height of summer in Siberia
There is an old Scottish curse: "May you live in interesting times". Conrad has the feeling that 2026 is going to be an 'interesting' year for Ruffia.
Another Nothingburger
Yet another clickbaity link I am NOT going to click. Art!
" day vapourise the Earth"
Yes indeed. FOUR BILLION YEARS IN THE FUTURE. So, not a concern you need to worry about this weekend. It's one of the final stages of stellar evolution, in case you were wondering, and even if you weren't.
'Theranos'
Another entry from the 'Museum Of Failure', and a brand name mashed together from 'Therapy' and 'Diagnosis', thanks to 'New Scientist' for explaining that. The MOX article linked to that scientific publication, which was printed before Elizabeth Holmes, CEO of Theranos, was found guilty of seven counts of fraud. She's in prison and lost her appeal. Art!
Theranos had supposedly invented technology that could detect 200 medical conditions from a pinprick of blood. Amazing!
Apart from the fact that it didn't work. The test results were inaccurate and unreliable and only one of the 200 was ever licenced by the FDA. Theranos bled money in lawsuits and compensation before it folded. Holmes is due for release in 2032 and had to pay $452 million in restitution. Ooops. Doubtless to have a career as a motivational speaker once she gets out.
This One Kind Of Slipped Past Me
Conrad was aware that NASA intended to mount a lunar mission at some point in the future, not realising that it might be as soon as February 2026. Art!
The Artemis 2 was put together upright in the gigantic building you see here: the Vertical Assembly Building, so huge that it needs special air-conditioning to prevent the formation of clouds. Art!
Then the 'Crawler' carried it to the launch pad, at the galloping speed of 0.5 miles per hour. In case you were wondering, and even if you weren't, Artemis 1 was an unmanned - sorry, uncrewed - launch to test the technology before Artemis 2 launched with a four-person crew. Art!
The four-person crew, with - gasp! - a woman amongst them. Once they launch the Artemis will carry out over 40 hours of Earth-orbit operations to test systems and procedures. Then it's off to do a fly-by of the Moon, for the first time in over 50 years. The trip to our nearest neighbour is 4 days each way. Get used to that word 'Artemis', you're going to be seeing it a lot on the blog in the near future.
Finally -
We end with another Biercism.
"Friendship, n: A ship big enough to carry two in fair weather, but only one in foul."
Thank you, Ambrose.
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