Dismay, That Is
For Lo! we are back on the enthralling subject of the Ruffian economy, which is manifesting symptoms of what experts call 'circling the drain', or, to continue the plumbing metaphor, 'in the toilet'. Thanks to 'Suchomimus' and. 'Joe Blogs' on Youtube and 'Prune60' on Twitter* for compiling information. Art!
A metaphor for the Ruffian economy
Joe drew a somewhat strained analogy with the Vietnam Unpleasantness, but he hit the nail squarely on the head when standing back and seeing things in perspective, because what we have here is asymmetrical warfare. Ruffia is enormously larger than Ukraine, with three times the population, far larger military resources (to begin with) and is directed by a despotic autocratic kleptomaniac tyrant, so the country does what he says and no debate is tolerated. Art!
Psychosomatic Noose Syndrome?
HOWEVER! - my sweet word - Ukraine is backed by the 'Global West', an unholy combination of the EU, NATO and parts of Asia and the Antipodes. This balances the scales a bit. What you also have to consider is that the Ukrainians are brave, clever and good at inventing/improvising. Ruffia? not so much. This brings us to the matter of -
DRONES: Ukraine is currently writing the book on drone warfare. This blog and another two could easily be devoted to nothing but drones, except I will be merciful. Drones are critical on the battlefield, behaving like intelligent artillery shells. What the Ukes have done is turn a novel method of warfare on the cheap into a severe problem for Ruffia. Art!
Courtesy 'Covert Shores'
I count 24 varieties there. You are probably aware of the exceedingly large oil depot fires caused by cheap Ukrainian drones, where possibly $50 million in stored oil has been destroyed by a drone costing perhaps $5,000. The night prior to this blog being written, Barad-Duh was hit by drones, as were numerous other infrastructure sites across Modern-day Mordor, in a wave of over 100 Ukrainian drones. Kyiv is looking to build ONE MILLION drones by the end of this year. Not all will be one-way kamikaze killers but if 50% are, and only 1% of those hit their targets, that's 5,000 targets hit. Ruffia's infrastructure is going to get a right malleting.
PALYANITSIA: Joe did a separate item on this item. Art!
It's named after a variety of Ukrainian bread, which - allegedly - the Ruffians have trouble trying to pronounce. Conrad's baking genes are interested.
ANYWAY you'll notice I called this an 'item', since it blurs the line between drone and cruise missile. Art
Speculative but it does give an internal breakdown
This puppy, as you see from the upper picture, uses a turbojet instead of the humble lawnmower engine and propellor, which instantly ramps the unit cost up. We don't have a proper price tag, only that it costs 'less than $1 million' so say $900,000. It comes with electronic counter-measures, and uses satellite navigation, as well as 'other methods' which are not detailed. Professor Justin 'Stronk' Bronk, in an interview last year, said that converting a prop drone to a jet version put the price into that of a cruise missile, so why not just build a cruise missile? Economies of scale, perhaps? Building 1,000 may bring the price down to $200,000 each.
'Forbes' speculates that this doughboy is intended for high-speed attacks on parked aircraft, which won't have time to flush and get away. Expending a $900,000 drone on a $20 million aircraft is a winning exchange. Art!
Repeat after me: If it's stupid but it works then it's not stupid
DIRECT WAR COSTS: Nothing good to note here, either. We are 2/3 of the way into 2024 and the cost of the Special Idiotic Operation is already estimated at 50% more than in 2023. This trend is expected to continue into 2025. Government bonds being floated are only selling a fraction of what Ruffia needs to keep funding the war, and some have been withdrawn as take-up was so low.
EXPORTS: One of the staples of Ruffia, as it was with the Sinister Union before it, was the export of military hardware. Note past tense. The poor performance of many Ruffian weapons-systems in real life has been noted by those who are in the market for military purchases. Art!
" - comes with fine wine and cheese -"
Serbia is supposed to be pro-Ruffian. In fact it's been happily selling artillery shells to the Ukes. Buying fighter jets from a NATO country is a real kick in the teeth for Putinpot.
SANCTIONS: What Conrad likes to call "The death of a million cuts" since they take ages to have an affect. When they do -
1,200 Western businesses left Ruffia, and the ones remaining run the risk of being taken over and handed to an oligarch with sweaty palms. The supply chain has been shattered, there is a dearth of technical expertise and access to technology, which is essential to overcome labour shortages. China and India have been major trading partner with Ruffia - not allies, trading partners out for what they can get - but are now experiencing potential secondary sanctions. This means very long delays in processing payments and an equally steep rise in admin costs. There is currently a $1 billion backlog in payments waiting to be processed between Russia and The Populous Dictatorship. This is not how you run a successful economy. Art!
Dave Sancious. Close enough.
TERRITORIAL LOSSES: Ukraine now controls over 500 square miles of Ruffia. This is a propaganda disaster and makes Putinpot look weak, which is why he's avoided any comments about it and instead gave magisterial orders to have it over with by October 1st. It has caused a run on the ruble, which is one of the shakiest currencies in the world anyway, and the Moscow Stock Exchange has plummeted like a kamikaze drone.
ECONOMIC DATA: Even at the height of the Cold War, the Sinister Union published economic statistics. Not so Putinpot's Ruffia; a few months back they cut off access to the Ministry of Finance's monthly statistics. Now oil and gas production figures are suddenly a state secret, meaning that they're so bad Ruffia cannot allow them to be seen.
TLDR: The Ruffian economy is in very bad shape and it's only going to get worse.
Wow, a monster Intro! Better compensate with pictures pictures pictures.
"The War Illustrated Edition 193 November 1944"
Since we have covered flaming oil tanks in over-abundant detail, I thought this montage to be rather nastily apt. Art!
Well, for one thing, they took enough firefighting foam with them. I know, I know, catty. No description as high enough word count.
Take Note, Dimya
The ranks of civilian opposition in Bangladesh swelled to such enormous proportions that the Bengali dictator Sheikh Hasina ran away. The army refused to commit mass murder to keep her in power and 'strongly suggested' that she beggar off, which she did whilst her head was still attached to her body and her neck was it's normal length. Art!
The Ruffian populace are gullible, credulous, supine sheep, but even they have a limit.
Bloaty Gas Tout must be living that Shakespeare phrase "Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown"
Kyle's Isles
A more tranquil item than war and civil strife. "Geography King" chose Fisher's Island in New York state. Art!
Only four miles square, it's a lot closer to Connecticut than the rest of New York - 2 miles as opposed to 11 - and when summer tourist season arrives, it's mostly folks from Connecticut who travel there. Art!
Permanent population is 420 although there are over 600 residences, which gives you an idea of how much accommodation is tourist-related.
And with that we are done!
* I call it this because it annoys Elong Tusk a lot.
No comments:
Post a Comment