The End Of The Line

Yes, That's A Tad Ambiguous

I need to be careful in the Intro from now on, as apparently the Facebook mods have decided that BOOJUM!s abrupt switching from one topic to another in the promotional blurb constitutes SPiced hAM in a very peculiar definition of the rules.  So - this 'End Of The Line' is nothing to do with the penultimate scenes in "Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome", where the escapees on a runaway train come, indeed, to the end of the line.  Art!

     That locomotive's not going anywhere.  Quite why the railway lines stops in the middle of the Australian outback is another question entirely; perhaps there was more, except it got destroyed in The War?

     ANYWAY there is another end-of-the-line-scene in one of, if not the, best animated films ever made: "Spirited Away".  Art!

chihiro and No-Face, last passengers on the train

     There's no clocks visible so we can only guess at how long it took them to reach this 'station' (more likely only a halt), just consider they set off on this journey in broad daylight - and now darkest night has fallen.  That's a metaphor we may come back to.
     ANYWAY AGAIN onto the meat of the matter in this Intro, which is, of course - obviously! - the Ruffian economy.  You may not be aware that the Ruffian Central Bank had a meeting on 26th July where they raised their interest rates again, and where Elvira Nabuillina, their CEO, gave a gloomy prognostication:

"The reserves of labour force and production capacity in the economy are "practically exhausted," the head of the Russian Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said at a press conference."

     Art!

"This is how I scare cats."

     There is a very real sense that the Ruffian economy is about to reach the end of the line.  If Ol' Nabby is quoting misery like this, then things are indeed very very bad.  Up to now she's been tea- and window-proof because Putinpot needed her to run the economy, a defence she may no longer have if said economy is now heading for ruin not being run.

     I would like to thank the inestimable Joe Blogs and also the mighty Prune60 for the following data and insights.

LOSE-LOSE DAMNED IF, DAMNED IF NOT:  It is already too late for Ruffia to avoid very severe long-term consequences of moving to a wartime 'Sovietised' economy, as has been detailed in a recent report by no fewer than 8 EU finance ministers.  For one thing, the Kremlin has been pumping trillions of rubles into military enterprises which has seemingly bumped up their GDP dramatically compared to other nations.  However - ah, that word again! - this wartime economy will cease to exist if and when the war finishes, meaning all those businesses servicing it today would be out of a job tomorrow.  Art!

WAGES:  In an aside, contract soldiers are now being offered almost ten times the original amount to sign up for service in Ukraine - ₽1.9 million, or about $20,000.  This is symptomatic of the increase in wages, because all the military enterprises can afford to pay top ruble, thus attracting employees, thanks to their 110% guaranteed state funding.  Thus other businesses are left scrambling and raise their wages, leading to a spiral, which in turn drives up inflation.  They have to do so because, as Ol' Nabby said, there are no spare employees lying around any more.  Art!

ECONOMIC METRICS: Sorry if that sounds dull.  You see, the Ruffians are boasting about their rising GDP and how the IMF predicts 3.2% growth next year, which the IMF will say as they parrot what the Ruffians tell them.  In fact things are a whole lot gloomier than that, as GDP alone does not accurately reflect how a country's economy is faring.  Of rather more import are the interest rates, as mentioned now at 1/8% as compared to Western rates of 5%, and the rate of inflation, which is comprehensively cooked by the state.  Officially it stands at 9.2%, except the unofficial rate is at least twice that and possibly even 24%.  Also, GDP is calculated against the previous year's statistics, which were outstandingly awful for 2022, making 2023 look good by comparison.  Art!

The theory is, Feral Kid from "Mad Max 2" grew up to be the Tom Hardy character

     Er - yes.  Nothing to do with economics.  Sorry about that.

COSTING THE CATASTROPHE: This is where the railway line analogy turns into a Moebius strip, if you'll forgive the tortured metaphor.  You see, Ruffia cannot afford to lose the war, as reparations would cost in the region of $500 billion.  Art!

     

     Looks bad, right?  

     HOWEVER - there we go again - the cost of Ruffia winning would be almost as awful, since it would cost them at least $400 billion to renovate and rebuild in the occupied territories.  The end of the Sovietised wartime economy would immediately trigger a massive recession, rather like a runaway locomotive hitting the buffers.  Art!

The Haul

Today I ventured into Babylon-Lite (or Oldham if we're being formal), which usually involves the purchase of books and DVDs.

     Not today!   No, I was resolute and avoided the charity shops, especially the Oxfam shop which always has interesting old books in stock.  Instead - Art!

     There are only four packets of loose-leaf Darjeeling present because that's all they had on the shelves at Sainsbos.  I now have four pizzas in the fridge and freezer and need to eat a couple to make more room, which won't be a bother in the slightest.  That packet you can't quite see is Pierogi, Polish stuffed dumplings.

Someone Else Is Probably Unhappy Today

Donald Judas Trump has ju - excuse me, Donold Judas Trump has just received more bad news, which he probably hoped would be delayed until after the November elections.  Art!

     The Supreme Court of The United States ruled that Trump had presidential immunity, which he probably cheered at, but only for official acts, which will have him spooked as he knows he can't claim everything was official.  The issue now is for Judge Chutkan to carry out an investigative briefing on what was official and what wasn't.  Expect Agent Orange to prate loudly that everything he ever did was official, especially anything illegal, immoral or otherwise Trumpian, and that he's the bestest ear-healer ever and that ought to be enough to get him off the hook.

     We shall see.  Lay in stocks of popcorn!

Here's A Contrast And Then Some

You may not know it - I knew the bare <ouch> outline but not the details - that Romania has the largest population of brown bears in Europe.  They live in the mountains and, if you know how to behave in a bear-on-human encounter, are not usually a problem.  Except - Art!

     In fact it threw her off a mountainside when she tried to run from it, gave her a mauling and kept her head underwater in a stream at the bottom of the canyon.  This has led to an overturning of the 2016 moratorium in Romania on the killing of bears, as there are now 8,000 of them wandering the Carpathians.

     Below that item - Art!

     A certain Doctor Khalil opened a sanctuary for ex-dancing bears in 1998, when using them for entertainment was banned.

     We in the West cannot criticise, or point accusingly as - well, let me bring on the evidence.  Art!

     I think the RSPCA should be told.

Finally -

I occasionally mention "AfricanStalingrad" on the blog, as he posts on Twitter about the war in Tunisia in late 1942 and up to the end of the campaign in 1943.  He posted a picture of his mancave and it makes mine look sparse and uncluttered.  He's recently been reading a work about Allied logistics in the Second Unpleasantness, and bemoaned the fact that there are so few books dealing with military logistics.

     Well, I'm afraid I've probably induced another book purchase by him - Art!

     Right up his street.  Not read it myself, mind.